The NFL is, by far, the most watched of sports leagues in the United States. When you also factor in the vast amounts of money in the game, it does not take a master mathematician to work out that it will also be the most bet on sports league as well. As with many sports with a myriad of technicalities and tactical variants, it would be easy for a newcomer to NFL betting to become lost in the maze of technicalities. However, taking account of a few more simple rules can be of immeasurable benefit when deciding exactly how, and where to place your bet.
Firstly, remember that every new season sees changes to the league that will affect teams, which subsequently will affect who you should bet on. Such statistics are useful to a degree, but not infallible, and not as immediately easy to assimilate for the newbie.
A simpler rule is to always go against the prevailing mood of the general public. Most of the general public does not pay sufficient attention to the kinds of details that really make a difference, and so they are likely to be wrong much more often than they are right. Another spin-off of this rule is that, logically, the more people that bet against you, the larger the payout will be when you win.
One can examine this rule particularly in the light of the Super Bowl. Take last year, for example, and Super bowl 42, where the undefeated Patriots were overwhelming favourites to overcome the giants. The game saw the Patriots lose their perfect season record to the universal underdogs.
Also, do not become overly fixated by talk about the previous seasons and related statistics. Many fans are liable to do this, and it can be detrimental in terms of ascertaining odds.
Do not be a slave to last year’s stats, as they are unlikely to be repeated. Look especially at the players and the lines-particularly important in college football, where the lines on each team vary hugely from year to year due to the fact that the teams change when graduates leave.
It is perhaps best to bet in the early part of the season, as many gamblers wait to see how the season will unfold and how teams develop. Some base their own statistical patterns on such things. By using your own knowledge of the teams and players, you can reap dividends in the early part of the season.
Also, pay attention to non-official statistics, such as penalties, non-plays and turnover differential, as these can play a huge factor in games and dramatically influence any betting activity. This is especially true of the turnover differential, as teams that turn the ball over less usually end up winning. Look also for teams that are currently on a losing streak playing a team that has won their last few games, and bet on the team that has been losing. Betting on a team to rebound is a basic in any sport and not just the NFL. Also, look at teams that have won several games in a row (at least three) and bet against them. Conversely, back the underdog for better profits-i.e., a team that has lost at least three in a row.
Teams with a solid defense are also a much more solid bet than those with a strong attack-even if they are less exciting to watch. This is a basic tenet and one with which all sports fans are familiar.
It is also not recommended to bet on pre-season games, as starting line-ups will vary greatly from the regular line-up. Many coaches take the pre-season as a chance to look at players outside the starting line up, and do you really want to put your money on back-up players, some of whom might not play again?
As ever, do not get too emotionally involved (at least where betting is concerned.) Use all information available, and enjoy the games!
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